Due to the outbreak of COVID-19, concerns regarding public health and safety extend directly to elections; thus, in-person voting imposes new challenges for election administrators. This case study applies discrete-event simulation modeling to a COVID-19 election system and demonstrates that designing for processing changes, such as social distancing and equipment sanitization, differs from traditional elections.
The separation of provisional voter check-ins, which reduced average time-in-system (ATS) and maximum time-in-system (MTS) in previous models, increased ATS (54–65 minutes) and MTS (75–100 minutes) in COVID models. When provisional check-ins were separated and check-in stations were relocated toward the vote center entrance, ATS and MTS were significantly reduced (9–19 minutes and 4–32 minutes, respectively). These findings indicate that election systems operating during COVID-19 require specific considerations rather than generalized recommendations.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) concerns regarding health and safety extend directly to elections. Despite alternative voting options, in-person voting remains available. Election administrators must understand the impact of design decisions on election planning and resource allocation, especially with COVID-19 safety precautions such as social distancing and sanitization.
While these precautions are essential in mitigating the spread of COVID-19, methods for designing polling locations under new regulations are largely speculative, and the system-wide impacts are mostly unknown. This case study explores the impact of COVID-19 strategies through discrete-event simulations of a Los Angeles County vote center.
Researchers have applied queuing theory and simulation models to voting systems; however, these approaches often lack the specificity needed to represent complex voting behaviors. Discrete-event simulation is a well-established methodology used in healthcare, construction, and other domains.
Limited research has bridged election system studies with advanced discrete-event simulation. The changes required by COVID-19 safety regulations necessitate this modeling approach. This study assesses the impact of design decisions on an election system implementing COVID-19-specific changes.
Through a case study of a Los Angeles County vote center, this research investigated the impact of social distancing and equipment sanitization during the 2020 Presidential Primary Election. The study expands on prior discrete-event simulation models to incorporate COVID-19 regulations.
Model adaptations reduced equipment quantities, limited path capacities to maintain distancing, and introduced an equipment sanitization process after each ballot marking device use. All other model aspects, including routing and processing times, were retained.
Alternative COVID-19 models were compared to a baseline model using multiple replications and confidence intervals to measure differences in performance, including average time-in-system (ATS) and maximum time-in-system (MTS).
Results indicate that vote center design significantly impacts ATS and MTS in COVID-19 elections. Strategies that redirected voter flow or relocated check-in stations alone did not substantially differ from the baseline model.
Separating provisional voter processing, individually or combined with looping voter paths, resulted in significant increases in ATS and MTS. The combination of relocated check-in stations with separated provisional processing, however, produced significant reductions in both ATS and MTS.
Table 1: Significant model results
| Model | Change in ATS (hrs) | Change in MTS (hrs) |
|---|---|---|
| SPP | -0.991 ± 0.094 | -1.463 ± 0.206 |
| SPP and LVP | -1.003 ± 0.096 | -1.471 ± 0.216 |
| SPP and MCS | 0.231 ± 0.090 | 0.297 ± 0.232 |
| SPP, LVP, and MCS | -1.045 ± 0.097 | -1.562 ± 0.217 |
Note: p < 0.007. Calculated as (Baseline – Option). Negative values indicate an increase in time; positive values indicate a reduction.
In previous election models, separating provisional voter check-ins reduced ATS and MTS. In COVID-19 election models, this strategy alone did not improve performance and was only effective when combined with relocation of check-in stations.
These findings suggest that design strategies effective in traditional elections may not translate well to election systems operating under COVID-19 mitigation measures. Further research is required to understand the interactions between mitigation strategies and polling location design.
Proceedings of the 2020 Winter Simulation Conference K.-H. Bae, B. Feng, S. Kim, S. Lazarova-Molnar, Z. Zheng, T. Roeder, and R. Thiesing, eds.
University of Rhode Island
260 Fascitelli Center for Advanced Engineering
2 East Alumni Avenue
Kingston, RI 02881, USA
Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction
University of Nebraska–Lincoln
PKI 206C
1110 S. 67th Street
Omaha, NE 68182, USA